Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely tonight.
...01z Update...
Stubborn upper ridge is holding firm across the southwestern
US/southern Rockies early this evening. As a result, stronger flow
is forced across the northern tier of states along with most
meaningful short-wave troughs. Midlevel height field is being
suppressed a bit across the northern Rockies/high Plains and a few
thunderstorms have developed across eastern MT where lapse rates are
steep, but MUCAPE is very weak. This activity should become even
more isolated with loss of daytime heating.
Warm advection is expected to contribute to weak elevated convection
across portions of the Midwest tonight as profiles gradually moisten
in the 2-3km layer due to a modestly strong but veered LLJ. Forecast
soundings suggest any hail that develops with this elevated activity
should remain below severe levels.
Isolated convection that is currently noted across portions of the
central FL Peninsula should continue to weaken over the next few
hours as the boundary layer cools. Lighting threat should focus
offshore by mid evening.
..Darrow.. 03/26/2026
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