Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today from southeast Georgia to
the coastal Carolinas. Locally strong thunderstorms may occur across
parts of coastal/eastern North Carolina this afternoon, but greater
severe potential should tend to remain offshore.
...Coastal/Eastern North Carolina...
Mid/upper-level troughing will progress eastward today across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The southern portion of this trough and
related modest large-scale ascent will overspread parts of the
coastal Southeast states by this afternoon. Isolated convection
appears possible along/south of an advancing cold front from
southeast GA to the coastal Carolinas. A stronger thunderstorm or
two may occur across coastal/eastern NC around 19-22Z, as somewhat
greater instability, low-level convergence along the front, and
modest ascent ahead of the upper trough should exist across this
area. While 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will conditionally support
organized updrafts, current indications are that more robust
thunderstorm development should tend to remain just offshore the NC
Coast. Have therefore refrained from including low hail/wind
probabilities across this area, but trends will be monitored.
..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/23/2026
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