Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Ongoing thunderstorms across the southern Appalachians will continue
to pose a threat for lightning into the Carolinas this evening.
... 01Z Update ...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a subtle mid-level trough
will continue to move across the southern Appalachians into the
Carolinas this evening. Recent mesoanalysis suggests deep-layer
shear is around 30 knots and most-unstable CAPE up to 500 J/kg.
However, ongoing convection has struggled to maintain robust
updrafts within this environment. Given weak forcing for ascent,
increasing convective inhibition, and decreasing instability this
evening, any severe wind or hail potential should remain less than
5% coverage.
Thunderstorms should dissipate later this evening into the early
morning.
..Marsh.. 03/22/2026
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