Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Valid 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low the rest of tonight.
...01z Update...
Despite modest boundary-layer heating observed across the Ohio
Valley this afternoon, boundary-layer moisture has struggled to
return to this region. Surface dew points are only in the upper 40s
to near 50F across OH/KY into western PA/WV. As a result, MUCAPE is
pretty meager within only a few hundred J/kg noted across this
region. 00z soundings from ILN/PIT support this with 240 J/kg at PIT
and 130 J/kg at ILN. While deep-layer shear is strong, buoyancy will
likely remain too meager to warrant robust updrafts this evening.
Latest radar data depicts weak convection, a few flashes of
lighting, just ahead of the cold front over central Ohio. This
activity may continue to expand in areal coverage, but
aforementioned negatives suggest severe probabilities are too low to
warrant a risk this evening.
..Darrow.. 03/21/2026
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