Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central U.S., in
south Florida, and from the Intermountain West into the central High
Plains.
...Discussion...
Great Basin to southern Wyoming: Notable upper trough is
approaching the northern CA coast late this evening. This feature is
forecast to advance into the eastern Great Basin as a 500mb speed
max translates across southern NV into southern UT. Cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates north of the jet favor weak
buoyancy along a corridor from northern NV into southern WY.
Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE could approach 500 J/kg by peak
heating. While deep-layer shear will be strong along the northern
fringe of the jet, current thinking is convection that evolves
across this region should not produce more than gusty winds, as PW
values are quite low.
Central U.S.: LLJ is forecast to increase across the southern Plains
into southern MO during the latter half of the period. Low-level
warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for potential
convective development during the overnight hours as the warm front
advances north into KS/MO. Forecast soundings suggest elevated
thunderstorms will not have enough instability to warrant a risk for
severe hail.
Southern Florida: Easterly low-level flow will persist during the
day1 period which should favor convection concentrating near the
southern FL Gulf coast. However, forecast midlevel lapse rates are
quite poor and this diurnally enhanced activity should remain weak
and sub-severe.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/02/2026
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