Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across far south
Florida.
...Synopsis...
The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required.
Latest GOES imagery shows shallow convection developing immediately
north of the current thunder line and south of Lake Okeechobee.
While a lightning flash or two is possible with this activity, the
lack of vertical development/limited cloud phase change (per Day
Cloud Phase imagery) limits confidence in lightning potential.
Latest guidance continues to suggest the greatest lightning threat
will remain along the southeast FL coast through evening.
..Moore.. 03/18/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026/
...Synopsis...
A substantial upper high and attendant ridge is apparent in morning
water vapor imagery over the western U.S. Further east, a stalled
front is noted across the Bahamas and Florida Straits. Surface high
pressure in the wake of the frontal boundary across the Southeast
will maintain offshore trajectories and a dearth of boundary layer
moisture. This will preclude thunderstorm activity across most of
the CONUS.
Some lingering low-level moisture and weak elevated instability may
support a couple of thunderstorms over far south FL and portions of
the Keys today, though most activity will remain offshore.
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