Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by
the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid
Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could
become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain
amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and
U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it
appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification
just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward
progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the
Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard.
It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will
gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the
Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating
northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this
evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will
eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface
cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening
cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity.
Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast
to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and
Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface
pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern
Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage
of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all
the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and
the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday.
...Atlantic Seaboard...
Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into
middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that
60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher
terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew
points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North
Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line,
which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the
southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the
outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and
large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm
development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may
impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains
unclear.
Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak
lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air
aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even
so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at
least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is
possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic.
In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on
the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear,
including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment
appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving
supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much
interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this
time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the
storm motions.
Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front
might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of
promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to
produce widespread damaging wind gusts.
Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be
maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to
severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the
southern Atlantic coast.
..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026
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