Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.
...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. Recent observed
soundings from central/south Florida showed potential for marginally
severe storms, though a mid-level subsidence layer was noted with
northern extent. Additional short-term details can be found in MD
#237.
..Wendt.. 03/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026/
...Florida...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon
across parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys, with agitated cu
noted on recent visible satellite imagery across east-central to
southeast FL. Greater low-level moisture is present across
central/south FL, where 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints exist per
latest observations. Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass
will support the development of moderate instability through the
afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates (reference 00Z MFL and 12Z
KEY observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds may tend to
limit updraft strength. Even so, modestly enhanced upper-level winds
and related deep-layer shear around 25-30 kt could support isolated
severe hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest cores that
develop. Have added a Marginal Risk for this potential across parts
of the southern FL Peninsula and vicinity where the greatest
concentration of convection is expected.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Moisture will remain meager today (surface dewpoints generally in
the teens and 20s) across the northern Rockies and High Plains as an
upper trough amplifies and a surface cold front advances southward
over this region. Even so, cold temperatures aloft may support very
weak MUCAPE and occasional lightning flashes with low-topped
convection that should develop from eastern ID/southern MT into much
of WY and vicinity this afternoon/evening. While gusty winds may
occur with this activity, the very limited thermodynamic environment
should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.
...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm/moist advection will increase tonight into early
Sunday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest as a
south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Weak MUCAPE
(generally less than 1000 J/kg) along and north of a warm front and
strong large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough ejecting
eastward over the northern Plains may support elevated thunderstorms
late tonight (mainly after 15/06Z) across parts of IA/MN/WI. Small
hail could occur with the strongest cores, and lightning flashes
appear possible with mixed/wintry precipitation well north of the
warm front into MN/WI.
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