Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts
of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Western/Central Pennsylvania...
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move
eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley
into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this
area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in
boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the
upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating.
One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some
threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background
gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability
forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be
very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with
this update.
...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along
and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially
form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable
environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL
observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent
KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and
organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with
the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should
remain low.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 03/13/2026
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