Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from
the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to
intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail.
...01z Update...
Large reservoir of MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg extends across
the southern Plains through the mid MS Valley into northwest
Indiana. Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low near the
IA/MO/IL border, lifting northeast in line with earlier model
guidance. A very sharp warm front extends across northern IL into
lower MI and this will serve as the demarcation for surface-based
convection through sunrise.
Scattered supercells have developed along and just south of the warm
front, immediately ahead of the surface low. This aligns with
earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for potentially strong
tornadoes along with very large hail. 00z sounding from ILX strongly
supports this with very steep lapse rates and strong instability.
Additionally, 0-3km SRH is on the order of 300 m2/s2. This activity
will spread/develop east/northeast along/near the warm front, as
currently depicted by the Moderate Risk.
Farther southwest across the central Plains, isolated severe
supercells are developing along the cold front across northwest
MO-south central KS. These storms should gradually increase in areal
coverage later this evening as they advance downstream as LLJ is
forecast to increase across eastern OK into central MO.
Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over
northeast Mexico/far west TX. This feature is beginning to open up
as it ejects northeast. Leading edge of large-scale ascent has
overspread the dry line, and earlier supercell activity is beginning
to evolve into a linear MCS from the Edwards Plateau into portions
of northwest TX. This activity should continue to grow upscale as it
spreads downstream, as strengthening LLJ across central TX will
support ongoing organization. 00z soundings from both FWD and OUN
exhibit very steep lapse rates, strong 0-6km shear, and strong
instability and this strongly suggests the potential for
longer-lived supercells and QLCS.
..Darrow.. 03/11/2026
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