Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms yielding a risk for large hail and
localized severe gusts may occur this afternoon and evening across
parts of south Florida and Oklahoma.
...Oklahoma...
A mid-level disturbance near the CO-KS border this morning will
quickly move east to the Ozarks by mid evening. Glancing
large-scale ascent associated with this feature and associated
low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the evening
from near the Red River into the Ozarks. A stalled cold front
paralleling the I-44 corridor will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development as an axis of weak buoyancy develops within
a narrow moist plume (50s deg F surface dewpoints) extending from
north TX into central OK. Forecast soundings show elongated
hodographs and upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, supporting an
environment potentially capable of a couple stronger storms that
could yield a risk for hail/wind during the 22-04z period.
...South Florida...
A weak mid-level trough over the eastern Gulf will move
east-southeastward across the FL Peninsula by early evening.
Accompanying weak ascent with this upper feature and differential
heating near a frontolytic boundary will support isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
parts of south FL. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is probable by early
to mid afternoon. Weak flow in the surface-3km layer will limit
overall hodograph length beneath 50-kt westerly flow at 300 mb. A
couple of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally
severe hail and perhaps gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/01/2026
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