Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south Florida, the
southern and central Plains, and in northern California region this
afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
South Florida: Large-scale pattern will not change appreciably
during the upcoming day1 period as broad upper troughing holds
across the eastern CONUS with ridging expected over the Great Basin.
Cool midlevel temperatures will overspread the FL Peninsula such
that modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to sufficient
instability for deep convection. Weak height rises and easterly
component to low-level flow are not particularly favorable for
severe thunderstorms, though a few robust updrafts could generate
gusty winds or small hail across the southeastern FL Peninsula.
Southern/Central Plains: Sharp cold front will settle south across
OK/TX Panhandle during the day as the center of the surface
anticyclone shifts into the Great Lakes. Modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted ahead of this wind shift across the TX South
Plains into southwestern OK which will result in convective
temperatures being breached by 22z as temperatures rise into the
lower 80s. PW values are not that moist across the southern Plains,
but weak low-level warm advection is expected atop the cold boundary
layer north of the front. Elevated convection should develop across
this region but weak buoyancy does not appear adequate for severe
hail with the strongest updrafts.
Northern California region: Modest midlevel height falls will spread
across northern CA ahead of a notable upper low that will approach
the coast by 02/00z. Left-exit region of 500mb jet is expected to
aid ascent across northern CA, and more than adequate instability
should materialize for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings
exhibit around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with cool midlevel temperatures and
steep lapse rates. The most robust updrafts could generate small
hail, but this activity is expected to remain below severe levels.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/01/2026
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