Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the coastal
Pacific Northwest tonight.
...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 02/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a pair of shortwave troughs moving
across the central CONUS amid modest upper troughing anchored by an
upper low just off the central Baja California coast. Southwesterly
flow extends from the eastern periphery of the upper low through OK,
which is just downstream of the southernmost shortwave trough. Some
showers are currently ongoing within this region, and the general
expectation is for them to continue throughout the period while
gradually shifting eastward with time. Forecast soundings in the
Arklatex vicinity shows scant buoyancy from 600 to 500 mb, which
could result in a few deeper convective elements. However, this
buoyancy is expected to be too shallow and weak for lightning
production.
Farther west, strong westerly/southwesterly flow aloft extends
through the Pacific Northwest, preceding ahead of shortwave trough
currently progressing through the northwest Pacific Ocean. This
shortwave is forecast to continue eastward, moving through the
Pacific Northwest this evening and overnight. Some modest buoyancy
may develop along the coast as cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this system spread eastward, supporting a line of
deeper convection along the axis of the upper trough. Occasional
lightning flashes are possible along the coast within the deepest
cores.
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