Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...Southeast AZ...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A few
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of
southeast AZ. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will prevail.
..Hart.. 02/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low centered
just west of northern Baja Peninsula. This imagery also shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting northeastward ahead of this
low towards the Southwest US. Some showers are already ongoing
across southwest NM ahead of this shortwave, and the expectation is
that precipitation coverage, and perhaps intensity, will increase
throughout the afternoon as lift and low/mid-level moisture also
increase ahead of the approaching shortwave. The increasing
low/mid-level moisture combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
thunderstorms, largely during the late afternoon across southeast AZ
and southwest NM.
Farther east, expansive high pressure will cover much of the CONUS
from the MS Valley eastward, promoting dry and stable conditions.
Lee troughing is anticipated over the High Plains with modest
cyclogenesis yielding a weak low that then moves across NE/SD
tonight. Dry and stable conditions here will preclude thunderstorms
as well.
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