Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
...AZ/NM...
A low-latitude shortwave trough should drift southeastward, west of
Baja CA. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture within a weak
warm conveyor should spread into parts of far southeast AZ later
this morning, shifting east across southern NM through the
afternoon. This might yield minimal elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below
100 J/kg) within predominately marginal temperatures for charge
separation. As such, thunder probabilities for this regime appear to
be below 10 percent.
In its wake, isolated thunderstorms should be focused over southeast
AZ this afternoon as meager surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE below 500
J/kg) develops. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous in the wake of
the leading warm advection plume, but sufficient orographic lift
should exist to support a few cells. Guidance does differ on the
degree of storm coverage though, with the 00Z RRFS/ECMWF on the more
aggressive spectrum.
..Grams.. 02/07/2026
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