Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Southern CA...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. An isolated
thunderstorm or two remains possible this afternoon and early
evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern CA.
..Hart.. 02/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper low currently developing off the coast of southern CA is
expected to continue deepening as it progresses southward today,
ending the period as a well-developed closed low off the coast of
the northern Baja Peninsula by early tomorrow. Modestly moist low-
to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of
this low, combining with cooling mid-level temperatures to support
scant buoyancy. Consequently, a few thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon and evening across the Transverse Ranges of southern
CA.
Expansive upper ridging is in place across much of the western and
central CONUS east of this upper low and associated troughing along
the West Coast. Stable conditions attendant to this ridging will
prevail across the remainder of the western and central CONUS. Deep
upper troughing exists east of this ridging from Ontario into the
western Atlantic Ocean, with several shortwave troughs embedded
within the cyclonic flow that extends from the Upper Midwest and off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, prevailing cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorm development.
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