Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.
Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
across the CONUS today.
..Hart.. 02/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals a considerably amplified upper
pattern featuring an eastern CONUS upper trough and a western CONUS
Rex Block anchored by expansive ridging from Mexico into British
Columbia. Within the eastern CONUS troughing, a shortwave trough
currently extends from the central Appalachians southwestward into
the north-central Gulf. Surface low associated with this shortwave
is currently off the South Carolina coast, with an attendant cold
front extending back southwestward across south Florida. This
surface low is forecast to eject northeastward into more of the
western Atlantic as its parent shortwave progresses eastward and the
cold front pushes through the remainder of south Florida. Modest
low-level moisture precedes this front across south Florida, but
tempered heating and warm temperatures aloft will mitigate any
buoyancy and no thunderstorms are anticipated. Cool and stable
conditions will preclude thunderstorms elsewhere across the CONUS.
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