Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
A surface cold front is evident in 00 UTC surface observations
extending from Middle TN southwestward to the TX Coastal Plain with
thunderstorms ongoing across portions of southeast TX into western
LA. This activity is expected to spread southeastward into the
northwestern Gulf through 12 UTC in tandem with the surface front. A
recent 00 UTC sounding from CRP sampled around 500 J/kg SBCAPE, but
the onset of nocturnal cooling should begin to modulate buoyancy
heading into the late evening/overnight hours. While forcing along
the front will continue to support convection, thunderstorm
intensity will likely continue to wane and limit the potential for
organized convection given the deteriorating thermodynamic
conditions.
..Moore.. 02/04/2026
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