Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
...Synopsis...
05 UTC surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing
along the TX Gulf Coast into eastern TX as a surface low gradually
intensifies across northwest TX. Further north, a cold front
continues to advance southward into the southern Plains. A
combination of isentropic ascent preceding the front and more
focused lift along the front will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development by early afternoon from eastern TX into the
lower MS River Valley and possibly into parts of the TN Valley as
the front pushes southeast towards the Gulf.
Although dewpoints will likely increase to the upper 50s and low 60s
by late afternoon, warm mid-level temperatures observed in 00 UTC
soundings will yield modest buoyancy profiles characterized by
lifted indices between -1 to -3 C. Consequently, this will limit
updraft intensities and the overall potential for severe convection.
Latest CAM guidance, including the typically aggressive REFS,
support this idea and depict very weak signals for strong updrafts.
..Moore/Wendt.. 02/03/2026
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