Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026
Valid 281200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are
also anticipated across portions of northern California into Oregon
and Nevada as well as Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau.
...FL Peninsula...
Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging toward the FL Peninsula
this evening, per latest water-vapor imagery. This feature will
encourage a surface front to settle south across the central
Peninsula during the afternoon which will serve as a focus for
convective development. With deep southwesterly flow expected across
the warm sector, the primary coastal boundary for potential robust
convection should orient itself along the eastern portions of the
Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across south FL, and convective temperatures
will easily be breached as temperatures warm to near 80F. With 35kt
expected at 500mb, 0-6km shear should be adequate for some updraft
organization, and possibly even a few weak supercells. Forecast
soundings suggest hail may accompany the strongest storms, along
with some risk for damaging wind. HREF guidance supports this and
the primary concern will be between 18-00z.
...Elsewhere...
A weak short-wave trough is expected to dig southeast across the
High Plains into MO/eastern OK by late afternoon. This feature is
expected to aid a few thunderstorms along/south of a cold front that
will surge across KS/northwest OK into the Ozarks during the
evening. Strong boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak
buoyancy, but steep lapse rates pose some risk for gusty winds with
this high-based activity. At this time it appears updrafts will be
too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe gusts.
Short-wave ridging will shift east across northern CA/NV as a
short-wave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest coast by 01/00z.
High-level diffluent flow and weak instability suggest isolated
thunderstorms will develop within this zone as large-scale ascent
and moistening profiles spread into this region.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/28/2026
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