Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be
possible from the ArkLaMiss into north-central Alabama, through
early/mid-evening.
...20z Update - ArkLaMiss/Deep-South...
Based on latest surface observation trends, the Slight risk (level 2
of 5) has been expanded a small amount eastward across portions of
west-central AL. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 70s
amid low/mid 60s F dewpoints. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
warm/moist boundary layer are supporting a corridor of around 1000
J/kg MLCAPE into west-central AL. This may support stronger/better
organized updrafts and a risk for large hail.
The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has also been expanded north and
eastward across northern and central AL. Trends in CAMs guidance
(specifically FV3/RRFS members) suggest a couple of storms may
develop further north. Furthermore, RAP forecast soundings appear to
be representing the boundary layer well, and suggest any storm
moving across northern into east-central AL could produce isolated
hail.
For more details on short term severe potential, reference Mesoscale
Discussion 119.
..Leitman.. 02/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026/
...Deep South including ArkLaMiss to north-central Alabama...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows scattered to
overcast cloud cover from southern AR/northern LA eastward into
eastern AL. Surface temperatures are gradually warming through the
mid 60s into the lower 70s deg F in areas void of extensive clouds,
mainly from west-central AL westward.
A mid-level disturbance over the central High Plains is forecast to
quickly move southeastward into the ArkLaMiss by late tonight. As
the upper system approaches, a cold front draped from southeast OK
eastward along the MS-TN border is forecast to accelerate
southeastward this evening and through much of the central Gulf
Coast states through tonight.
Modest mid-level cold-air advection will continue through the
afternoon and steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates across MS/AL. The
advection of the mid-level lapse rate plume and additional heating
will combine to increase buoyancy (ranging from 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE
west, to less than 500 J/kg east). Guidance is consistent in
showing weak low-level flow, but strong mid/high-level winds will
yield 40+ kt effective shear, supporting the potential for severe
storms including some supercells as storms develop and intensify
through mid/late afternoon. Both the prospects for appreciable
destabilization and probable widely scattered coverage of an initial
supercell storm mode, lend confidence for upgrading severe hail
probabilities (Slight Risk). A gradual waning in storm intensity is
expected through the evening as instability lessens and a transition
to less organized storm modes occur.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TRBC83
