Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Gulf states into the Southeast. A few storms may produce hail across
portions of northern Mississippi into northern Alabama.
...Gulf States...
Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough digging
southeast across the central Plains. 500mb speed max associated with
this feature is forecast to translate across northern AR into the
Mid South by 18z before the short wave deamplifies as it approaches
the southern Appalachians. In response to this short wave, LLJ will
strengthen across GA into NC before advancing off the Middle
Atlantic coast by early evening. While low-level flow will weaken
considerably across the northern Gulf states, weak convergence is
expected to aid convective development along the trailing synoptic
front as it settles south during the afternoon. Latest model
guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across
the lower MS Valley into northern AL by mid afternoon such that
minimal inhibition will be present along the wind shift. Forecast
soundings exhibit MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg as surface
temperatures rise through the upper 60s into the lower 70s. HREF
guidance supports this with isolated-scattered convection evolving
along the trailing boundary by 21z, especially the HRRR. Hail is the
primary concern with these storms through early evening.
..Darrow/Chalmers.. 02/26/2026
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