Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...Discussion...
West-northwesterly winds aloft will be prevalent across the majority
of the CONUS through tonight, broadly sandwiched between an
anticyclone near Baja and an upper trough centered near Hudson Bay.
An embedded/modestly amplifying shortwave trough over the northern
High Plains, and diurnal heating/steepening lapse rates, will
influence isolated thunderstorm potential this afternoon across
higher terrain of Wyoming/Colorado into the central High Plains. A
few convectively influenced stronger wind gusts could occur this
afternoon through around sunset within a well-mixed boundary-layer
environment, but severe thunderstorms currently seem unlikely.
Thunderstorm potential will otherwise develop east-southeastward
toward the Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley tonight as warm/moist
advection interfaces with a southward-spreading front, with weak
buoyancy expected to limit hail potential with this mostly elevated
convection.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/25/2026
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