Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
Valid 201300Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes
into the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal
Mid-Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will progress eastward across
Virginia and the Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite
this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the
front moving offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but
strong westerlies just off the surface could yield gusty winds.
The south-southwest extent of front will decelerate today and then
generally stall, orienting in a west/southwest-east/northeast
fashion across Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama
and the middle part of Georgia by late today. Isolated thunderstorms
may become a bit more probable into tonight as weak ascent focuses
along/north of the front. That said, relatively warm mid-level
thermodynamic profiles may limit the prevalence of lightning, as
well as any consideration for meaningful hail magnitudes. This is
even while elevated instability will quantitatively increase and
hodographs will be rather long, with steadily strengthening
southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL and 50+ kt shear
through the cloud-bearing layer. While a couple of strong storms
could occur tonight, thinking remains that the potential for severe
storms should remain low/conditional.
..Guyer/Grams.. 02/20/2026
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