Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Valid 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ILLINOIS ACROSS INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND OVER NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms including a tornado or two, large hail and
sporadic damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the Midwest
and lower Ohio Valley this evening.
...Discussion...
Scattered strong to severe storms persist this evening from the
surface low in central IL eastward along a warm front into central
IN/northern KY. Area soundings at 00Z show modest instability, with
moderately steep lapse rates mainly below 500 mb. However, a warm
layer continues to spread across the area out of the southwest,
which is limiting instability. Deep layer shear remains strong
across the entire region, conditionally favorable for hail
production. Low-level shear in association with the warm front and
40-50 kt 850 mb flow will also support a continued supercell and
possibly tornado risk primarily along the warm front. Otherwise,
sufficient elevated instability ahead of the low may support
sporadic marginal hail from IL across the remainder of IN and OH.
For southern KY into TN, more of a conditional risk of strong to
severe storms remains. The 00Z BNA sounding shows a supercell wind
profile, with modest moisture/instability. As the cold front pushed
east this evening, a supercell or two cannot be ruled out assuming
weak convergence along the front is enough to initiate storms.
For more information see mesoscale discussion 103.
..Jewell.. 02/20/2026
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