Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms remain possible this evening over parts of
north-central Florida and southeast Georgia, with gusty winds most
likely.
...Discussions...
A shortwave trough is currently moving across GA and FL. Between 00
and 06Z, rapid warming aloft will occur over the region, which will
likely gradually reduce storm strength.
Currently, the main zone of thunderstorm activity extends in a
west-east oriented band extending from the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampa and into the Atlantic, with lower-topped convection
beneath the cool pocket over southern GA. While deep-layer shear is
formidable at over 50 kt, thermodynamic profiles are not
particularly favorable. Area soundings at 00Z indicate a subsidence
inversion around 700 mb, though this is less prominent at TBW. Given
the loss of heating and the departing wave, storms are not expected
to increase in intensity, however, moderate westerly winds in the
low-levels, as well as 200+ effective SRH within the band of storms
north of Tampa could potentially produce a few damaging wind gusts.
A very brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out given the
strongly veering winds with height.
..Jewell.. 02/16/2026
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