Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...CA/Great Basin...
Weak midlevel height falls are forecast to spread across CA into the
Great Basin later this afternoon in response to an upper low that
will advance slowly inland. Latest model guidance suggests this
feature will contribute to destabilization across much of central CA
into NV/UT as sub -24C at 500mb exists beneath the upper low.
Associated surface low is forecast to struggle advancing inland so
weak south-southeasterly boundary-layer flow is expected across the
interior valleys. Forecast soundings exhibit weak vertical shear,
but modest turning with height. While buoyancy will remain weak, a
few low-topped storms could weakly rotate given the veering
profiles. Aside from lightning, the greatest risk would be small
hail, at best, with this diurnally enhanced convection.
...Southeast...
Westerly flow will gradually deepen across the Southeast later today
in advance of a surface front that will advance toward the SC/GA
coast by early evening. Some boundary-layer heating is expected
ahead of the wind shift such that weak buoyancy is forecast ahead of
the front. Latest forecast soundings suggest the most robust
convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge,
but this activity is expected to remain isolated.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/11/2026
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