Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
The ongoing synoptic regime remains unfavorable for thunderstorm
development across the country. Offshore flow into the Gulf and off
the Southeast coast is evident in surface observations and IR
imagery, and should become more prevalent through the day as a
surface cyclone intensifies and accelerates northeast towards the
Canadian Maritimes. Surface high pressure is beginning to build
across the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley in the wake of the
recent cold frontal intrusion, which will maintain dry and cool
conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Across the West,
upper ridging and very dry conditions below 500 mb will continue to
limit thunderstorm potential. A lightning flash or two appears
possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest as a weak upper
disturbance moves onshore, but lightning coverage will likely remain
below 10% based on latest guidance and forecast soundings.
..Moore/Wendt.. 02/01/2026
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