Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few severe storms will also be possible from the Sacramento
and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of northern
California and southwest Oregon.
...20z Update Southeast...
Overall, only minor changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe
and thunder probabilities were cleared west of a cluster of
thunderstorms ongoing along the northern Gulf Coast from southern
AL/GA into northern FL. Located ahead of a weak cold front, the
environment east of these storms is expected gradually become more
stable owing to remnant cloud cover/precipitation. Still, 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE and ~40 kt of deep-layer shear will remain sufficient
for occasional stronger/organized updrafts. Isolated hail, damaging
gusts or a brief tornado are possible, especially with any more
persistent supercell structures able to develop over southern GA and
the FL Panhandle.
...CA...
Several stronger convective elements remain near the coast or just
onshore beneath a strengthening shortwave trough over northern CA
and southern OR. Cool mid-level temperatures (-25C) and strong
frontal forcing will continue to support low-topped storms through
this afternoon. Large-low-level hodographs and strong southwesterly
flow aloft will support an isolated risk for damaging gusts, and
perhaps a brief tornado with any rotating miniature supercell or
QLCS structures moving onshore. Storms should weaken as the cold
front and upper trough move onshore completely this evening.
Farther south, strong ascent, from the aforementioned trough, and
modest surface heating are supporting weak destabilization over the
northern San Joaquin Valley. Favorable low-level hodograph curvature
and buoyancy could support an isolated low-topped supercell capable
of a brief tornado this afternoon. See the prior outlook for
additional info.
..Lyons.. 01/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026/
...Southeast...
Multiple shortwave troughs currently over the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley will continue to progress southeastward across
the region today. A relatively moist air mass precedes a weak
surface low and south/southeastward-advancing front, with a band of
scattered convection also a notable pre-frontal factor across
northern Florida and far southern Georgia. This convection and weak
near-frontal convergence should effectively limit severe potential
to its north, while potential severe storm development should be
more probable on its western flank across southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle and eventually other parts of far northern
Florida.
Low-level flow will tend to remain veered ahead of the front,
limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Even so, strong mid-level
westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across the region, resulting
in long hodographs that could support occasional organized updrafts.
Primary severe risk will be isolated damaging gusts, although a
low-probability risk for a brief tornado exists as well. Some
isolated hail could also occur, particularly with any storms near
the surface low over southern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening.
...Northern/Central California and Southwest Oregon...
A shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeastward and
inland over the region today. Modestly broken clusters of
thunderstorms have somewhat increased offshore this morning, with
the lead portion of these storms, including a few low-topped
rotating storms, located around 25-50 miles off the far northern
California coast as of 16z/8am PST. With a strong deep-layer wind
field, a few of these stronger, more organized, and potentially
rotating storms could move inland through midday with damaging wind
and/or waterspout/brief tornado potential. For additional short-term
details, see Mesoscale Discussion 4.
Additionally, into the afternoon, southerly low-level flow through
the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in
enough low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell
capable of a brief tornado.
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