Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across
parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe
thunderstorms are not forecast.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook.
..Dean.. 01/27/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS
and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm
potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level
shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific
today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this
evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500
mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated
lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that
is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR
mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall
weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
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