Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast
states this afternoon, with damaging gusts and a few tornadoes
possible mainly across southern Georgia and northern Florida.
...20z Update...
A northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-linear band of convection with
embedded bows and occasional transient circulations continues to
progress eastward at mid-afternoon across southwest Georgia, extreme
southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Scenario will remain
favorable, particularly over the next several hours (through late
afternoon) for damaging winds and a tornado risk across
southwest/toward south-central Georgia as well as nearby north
Florida, especially near a surface wave and along/south of a
northward-shifting warm front. Latest WSR-88D VWP data from
Tallahassee continues to imply 250+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH, while
middle/upper 60s F surface dewpoints, with a few 70F observations,
are becoming more common within the inland-expanding warm sector.
..Guyer.. 01/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026/
...AL/GA/FL...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough and associated 100kt jet over AR. This feature will track
rapidly eastward across the TN Valley today, with large scale
forcing overspreading the Gulf Coast states. This will aid in the
development of robust thunderstorms along the cold front now
extending from central AL into southeast LA. Ahead of the front,
southerly surface winds will transport Gulf moisture northward and
result in weak but sufficient destabilization for a risk of a few
severe storms. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for a few
tornadoes if semi-discrete structures can form along/ahead of the
developing QLCS. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts are the
main concern. Refer to MCD #0057 for further details.
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