Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.
...01z Update...
Southern-stream upper low is beginning to eject across northern
Mexico. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts this feature well and
scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of the primary midlevel
vort just south of the international border. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted north of the border across southeast AZ, but this activity
should gradually weaken over the next few hours. However, stronger
forcing is expected to aid elevated convection that will spread
across portions of far West TX this evening and thunderstorm
probabilities will reflect this risk through at least 06z tonight.
Downstream, warm advection will continue to be the primary mechanism
for more sporadic thunderstorms atop the cooler polar air mass.
Additionally, boundary layer destabilization will be retarded across
the lower MS Valley through 12z, and for this reason robust
thunderstorms are not forecast.
..Darrow.. 01/25/2026
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