Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern Florida
coast late in the period.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to remove thunder from the
southeastern Florida coast to account for recent trends. See
previous discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/14/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing extends over much central and eastern CONUS.
This troughing features two phased shortwave troughs, one moving
southeastward through the Upper Midwest and the other moving through
OK and AR. Both of these shortwaves are expected to continue
southeastward/eastward throughout the period as the parent upper
troughing also shifts gradually eastward. Upper ridging will persist
across the western CONUS, resulting in an amplified ridge/trough
pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.
Stable conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CONUS,
as the progression of the aforementioned shortwaves leads to a
reinforcing surge of dry, continental air. The only exception is
across south FL, where modest moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper
60s/low 70s) remain in place along the southeast coast. A few
thunderstorms are possible in this vicinity today, fostered by
limited buoyancy amid weak low-level convergence close to a weak
surface low. Additionally, low-level moisture and convergence are
forecast to increase as the southernmost shortwave trough mentioned
earlier progresses across the Gulf. Resulting increase in lift and
buoyancy could result in a few isolated thunderstorms along the
southwest FL Coast early tomorrow morning.
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