Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to undergo significant amplification today
as a series of shortwave troughs act to deepen the upper troughing
across the central and eastern CONUS, and the upper ridging over the
western CONUS remains in place. Primary amplification will be
associated with a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving through
the western periphery of the upper troughing over the Plains and
Upper Midwest.
Continental airmass associated with these shortwaves will also act
to reinforce the dry and stable conditions already in place across
the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception
currently is across far south FL and the FL Keys, where remaining
low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s) is supporting
modest buoyancy. This buoyancy coupled with low-level convergence in
the vicinity of the southeast FL coast and the Keys is fostering
some deeper convective cores. A few lightning flashes have recently
been observed near the middle Keys, and the expectation is for
occasional flashes to persist from the Keys into the far southeast
FL Coast throughout the day.
Lastly, broad ascent is anticipated across the Southeast
tonight/early tomorrow, resulting from a combination of lift
associated with the southernmost shortwave moving through upper
trough and lift attendant to another shortwave moving from TX into
the Lower MS Valley. Dry and stable low-levels will keep the region
free of sustained deep convection, but some forecast soundings do
show limited and shallow buoyancy above 700 mb. As such, there is
low potential for a flash or two across this region.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 01/13/2026
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