Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Largely cyclonic flow aloft is anticipated over much of the central
and eastern CONUS today, while a modifying Rex block configuration
evolves over the western CONUS. Stable conditions are forecast
across the majority of the CONUS, with offshore trajectories
persisting across the Southeast and a reinforcing surge of cold air
across the northern and central Plains as shortwave trough drops
southeastward out the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest this
evening.
A few lightning flashes could occur with the elevated convection
expected tonight from TX Rio Grande Valley into the TX Hill Country
as the upper low associated with the modifying Rex Block progresses
across central Mexico. A flash or two could also occur along the
southeast FL Coast after 04Z, where low-level convergence and
moderate low-level moisture may result in sporadic deep convection.
However, overall thunderstorm coverage is currently forecast to be
less than 10% in both of these areas.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 01/12/2026
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