Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf
Coast and Southeast.
...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve
into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the
period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced
short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a
less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH
Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper
Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker
falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes.
Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of
the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are
observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of
convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this
should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern
Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge
of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in
intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS
by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by
early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle
Atlantic.
One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed
across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern
extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected
in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an
adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and
seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with
any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern
for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the
LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level
shear will weaken.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TQGGXd
