Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds, and perhaps a brief weak tornado, could
occur along a portion of coastal southern California.
...Southern CA...
Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a well-defined shortwave
trough off the southern CA coast (about 220 miles west-southwest of
Lompoc CA). This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward,
reaching the coast early this morning before then progressing
through central CA and into NV, deamplifying notably as it does. A
jetlet, characterized by around 50 kt at 500 mb, will accompany this
wave, spreading across central and southern CA in tandem with the
wave's northeastward progress. The leading edge of this stronger
flow aloft is being sampled by the VTX VAD.
This overall progression is contributing to broad ascent across much
of central/southern CA, evidenced by the widespread precipitation
across the region. Some stronger ascent and associated deeper
convection is occurring across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
counties. Southern extent of this stronger ascent will likely
contribute to some deeper convection from the Channel Islands to the
southern CA Coast. Mid-level temperatures will be cooling across
this region as well, which could result in modest buoyancy within a
relatively shallow layer. This could result in enough buoyancy for a
few lightning flashes, although lapse rates are generally expected
to remain poor. Wind profiles support the potential for a strong,
convectively aided gust, and perhaps even a brief tornado, if
updraft depth and persistence is sufficient. However, given the
scarcity of buoyancy, the majority of convection will remain sub
severe.
..Mosier/Weinman.. 01/01/2026
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