Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly
through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida
Peninsula.
...South-central FL...
A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across
central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has
weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed
updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west
of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist
adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will
remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land.
But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50
kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a
low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late
evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf
convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor
large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and
severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253
for additional short-term discussion.
..Grams.. 12/08/2025
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