Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across
the Southeast states, and over parts of the northern Rockies.
Added a small area of thunderstorm potential along the ID/MT border
for later this afternoon and evening. A strong shortwave trough and
associated mid/upper level jet max are digging southeastward into
the region. This will provide favorable large-scale ascent, while
forecast soundings show the potential for weak, elevated CAPE. This
may result in a few lightning flashes.
No changes were made to the southeast states, where scattered
thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon and
evening.
..Hart.. 12/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025/
...Synopsis...
A split upper-flow regime over the CONUS will continue through
tonight. Zonal, high momentum flow will extend from the base of a
trough/upper low near Baja California east-northeastward across the
Ark-La-Miss and through the Mid-Atlantic region. Visible-satellite
imagery and buoy/surface observations show a cold front draped from
the western part of the Gulf of America northeastward into the FL
Panhandle and far southern GA. Occasional weak elevated
thunderstorms are possible through the day north of the boundary
from the mouth of the MS River into southern GA. A small area for a
stronger thunderstorm may develop this afternoon from the FL Big
Bend into extreme southern GA immediately along and south of the
front. However, weak convergence and lack of appreciable forcing
for ascent near the boundary will likely constrain thunderstorm
activity to isolated coverage and limit intensity, despite some
diurnal increase in buoyancy and the presence of strong mid- to
upper flow.
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