Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MISSOURI INTO WESTERN OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop over Missouri and Illinois today,
and move across parts of Indiana, Kentucky and Ohio through evening.
A few damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen as it moves from the northern Plains into
the upper Great Lakes, with rapidly intensifying mid and high level
flow and strong height falls spreading across much of the Midwest.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen from northern MO this
morning into Lower MI by 00Z, with an intense cold front trailing
southwest from the low. By mid afternoon, this front will extend
from northern IL into eastern MO and northwest AR, with southerly
winds aiding northward moisture transport with dewpoints near 60 F.
A warm front will lift across IL, IN, and southern Lower MI as the
low develops northeastward. Lift along these boundaries will support
scattered thunderstorms, with the greatest probabilities generally
near the surface low track from northeast MO into Lower MI. Given
strong wind fields, sporadic severe storms may occur.
...From MO into OH...
For the morning hours, scattered elevated thunderstorms appear
likely from eastern IA across northern IL, IN, and southern Lower MI
north of the warm front and in the zone of theta-e advection.
Forecast soundings indicate sufficient MUCAPE for perhaps small
hail.
From midday into the afternoon, SBCAPE over 500 J/kg is forecast
ahead of the cold front and near the surface low from eastern MO
across central IL and into IN. This is conditionally a favorable
area for supercells, though in this case the lack of surface heating
along with a cap below 700 mb suggest the bulk of the diurnal
convection should be relegated to the cold front, in which case a
linear mode seems likely. Still, given hodographs favoring
supercells, a few embedded areas of rotation will be possible and a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, damaging winds will be
the primary concern
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 12/28/2025
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