Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the western
CONUS today. With cool temperatures at mid levels supporting weak
MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of CA into the
Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period as large-scale
ascent associated with the upper trough spreads inland. Mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to
support some updraft organization across these areas, but limited
low-level moisture, cool surface temperatures, and overall weak
instability will likely hinder a meaningful severe threat from
materializing today. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes may occur
with elevated convection in a strong low-level warm advection regime
over portions of the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and southern
NY as a mid-level shortwave trough advances east-southeastward
across these areas.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/26/2025
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