Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. today.
General thunderstorm activity is most likely from lower Michigan
into Pennsylvania, and from parts of California into the Great
Basin.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A slow-moving positive tilt upper trough will move across CA and
into the Great Basin through tonight, with a weakening surface low
dropping southeastward into northern CA. Modest southwest flow aloft
will support continued moist conditions with areas of more
concentrated rain and embedded thunderstorms. In general, veering
low-level winds and/or weak instability will likely preclude much of
a severe thunderstorm risk, though stronger gusts may occur
coincident with shallow convection in favored areas of terrain
across parts of CA.
To the east, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Great
Lakes and OH Valley during the day and toward the Mid Atlantic late,
with a plume of 50s F dewpoints surging into OH. Several hundred
J/kg elevated MUCAPE will develop, supporting scattered
thunderstorms. While deep-layer effective shear may support cellular
storm mode, generally weak instability levels are unlikely to
support severe hail.
..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/26/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TQ1HVR
