Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado will exist through tonight along much of the California
Coast and portions of the Central Valley.
... 01Z Update ...
Multiple bands of convection look likely this evening into the early
morning hours as a deepening surface low approaches the California
coast. The strongest convective elements within this first band,
currently approaching the San Francisco Bay area, will be capable of
producing gusty winds as it moves inland.
Wind fields will strengthen overnight in response to the approaching
low. This will maintain sufficient low-level theta-e advection to
support modest low-level instability through Christmas morning.
Numerical guidance this evening indicates a more intense band of
convection will approach the central and northern California coast
in the 08-12Z (12-4AM PT) window, quickly moving into northern
portions of the Central Valley. Given the modest instability and
strong wind fields, isolated strong wind gusts and a brief tornado
will be possible overnight, especially along the coast.
Elsewhere along the California coast, low-level moist advection will
persist through the night supporting localized convective
development. For the same reasons listed above, an isolated strong
wind gust or brief tornado would be possible with these convective
elements.
... Central Valley ...
Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across portions of the
Central Valley near Sacramento. Surface-based instability around 500
J/kg within a strongly sheared environment will support an isolated
wind threat. Should convective elements become more cellular, the
low-level wind fields would support a brief tornado, especially in
areas where surface-based instability can be realized. This activity
will lift generally northward across the Central Valley through this
evening.
..Marsh.. 12/25/2025
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