Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.
...Discussion...
The next shortwave trough and associated cold front are expected to
advance inland across British Columbia/coastal Washington by this
evening. A related plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning
flashes with low-topped convection. Elsewhere across the West, a few
lightning flashes have been noted early this morning across the
California Sierra, and this scenario may continue today within a
moisture-rich plume with weak buoyancy.
A weak mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf and coastal
Mexico, along with a moist air mass (reference 12z Brownsville
observed sounding) to the south of a slow-moving front, may allow
for a few thunderstorms to develop into/across Deep South Texas.
Similar to morning RAOB/WSR-88D VWP observations, forecast soundings
suggest deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, such that any
convection that evolves across this region should remain below
severe levels.
..Guyer/Marsh.. 12/22/2025
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