Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is
expected to remain low.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level
flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will
likewise develop eastward across these regions through the
afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A
loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ,
and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of
hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating
with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in
place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should
continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm
advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor
thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection
to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update.
..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025
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