Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
occasional damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, remain
possible this evening across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and Southeast, and late
tonight across portions of coastal North Carolina.
...01z Update...
Strong midlevel trough is advancing across the MS Valley early this
evening. Associated pronounced surface front has surged into
southeast MI-western KY-northwest MS. This boundary will shift
across much of the OH/TN Valleys by late evening as the dynamic
trough induces strong height falls across this region. Latest radar
data reflects this with a strongly forced line of frontal
convection. A few strong gusts have been reported along the northern
sections of this linear MCS. Of potentially more concern is
convection that has developed ahead of the front across eastern MS
into northwest AL. This activity has evolved within a greater
buoyancy air mass characterized by SBCAPE on the order of 500-1000
J/kg. Lower 60s surface dew points have contributed to this
instability and a few supercells have matured and are advancing east
across Tornado Watch #0642. Greatest risk for organized severe will
remain focused across the northern Gulf states this evening.
Damaging winds, along with some tornado risk continues.
Risk of severe will increase late tonight near the Outer Banks
region of NC, and for this region will maintain MRGL Risk.
..Darrow.. 12/19/2025
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