Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe potential will be limited today, but isolated strong wind
gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.
...Lower Ohio/TN Valleys...
Strong midlevel trough is advancing quickly across the
northern/central High Plains late this evening. This feature is
forecast to progress into the MS Valley by late afternoon then eject
negative-tilt into the OH Valley during the overnight period.
Intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread across
the OH Valley and this is expected to aid large-scale forcing along
a sharp cold front that will surge into IN/KY/TN by 19/00z. Poor
destabilization is expected ahead of the front and forecast
soundings exhibit meager instability, and this is mostly with an
elevated parcel. While buoyancy will be weak, a strongly forced band
of frontal convection is expected to develop and spread east. Given
the level of parcel ascent, current thinking is a stable boundary
layer will minimize the risk of severe gusts near the surface. Even
so, isolated strong winds may accompany some portions of the
convective line, but the risk of severe gusts in excess of 50kt
appears too low to warrant a MRGL risk at this time.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/18/2025
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