Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Valid 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe wind gusts may accompany low-topped convection
across parts of the Pacific Northwest tonight into early Wednesday
morning.
...Pacific Northwest...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific will
amplify today and reach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight.
This trough will be accompanied by an enhanced deep-layer wind
field, with 90-100+ kt winds at 500 mb and around 50-80 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. Low-level moisture should also gradually
increase tonight ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front.
Low-topped convection may accompany the front, initially approaching
the WA Coast by late evening, and then more interior areas
overnight/early Wednesday.
Surface-based buoyancy will remain quite meager due to poor lapse
rates aloft and the time of night. Still, rather strong low-level
gradient winds will shift from the southwest to west-northwest as
the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes and occasional strong
to severe-caliber wind gusts may accompany the passage of this
low-topped convective line, with the most intense low-level
winds/convective influences expected to peak during the overnight
and early morning hours Wednesday. However, it remains quite
uncertain if these convectively enhanced winds will be substantially
stronger than the background gradient wind field. Therefore, the
Marginal Risk has been maintained with no changes.
..Gleason/Weinman.. 12/16/2025
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