Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms across
parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night.
...Pacific Northwest...
A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast through tonight before shifting inland over WA during the
early morning Wednesday. A deepening surface cyclone will move
across southern BC towards southwest AB, with a Pacific cold front
trailing south-southwestward. Low-topped convection is expected to
accompany the front, initially approaching the WA coast by late
evening. Surface-based buoyancy will remain meager, but strong
gradient winds will shift from the southwest to west-northwest as
the front passes. Sporadic lightning flashes and strong to severe
gusts may accompany passage of this low-topped squall before it
subsides inland in western WA/OR.
Intense lower-level flow will likely peak in the overnight to early
morning hours. Buoyancy should remain quite limited along and east
of the Cascades, but most guidance indicates broken low-topped
convection should spread east along/ahead of the front amid
pronounced large-scale ascent. Background gradient winds will likely
be capable of producing severe gusts, and some of these may be
coincident with sporadic lightning flashes.
..Grams/Wendt.. 12/16/2025
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