Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys this afternoon into Saturday night.
...Discussion...
Strong midlevel height falls will spread across the Ohio
Valley/Middle Atlantic during the day1 period as a pronounced upper
trough digs across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This evolution
warrants surface pressures rising across the interior CONUS east of
the Rockies, ultimately forcing a cold front toward the upper TX/LA
Coast by the end of the period. Prior to the frontal passage, weak
low-level warm advection will aid some convective threat due in part
to the influence of a low-amplitude short-wave trough that will
eject across the western Gulf basin. Otherwise, lightning may
accompany frontal convection as the wind shift surges into this
region. In addition to isolated thunderstorms across the upper
TX/LA Coasts, moisture/buoyancy is expected to gradually advance
north across the FL Keys into the southern FL Peninsula. Weak
disturbance should encourage isolated thunderstorm development
across this region as well. In both scenarios, severe threat appears
negligible.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/13/2025
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